Kudos to Andy Reid, something did happen, Vick left his mark. With more Vick jerseys in the stands than any other play combined, Vick went out there and embraced his role for the first time all year. With a touchdown run and pass Vick got his first two TDs since his return to the league. I could not be happier for the guy, he made his mistakes and he is currently making up for them. While he may not play in Philly again next year, I’ll follow him with a smile on my face. Few players are more gifted than him in this league and it would be a shame to not see him in the limelight again. So congrats Michael, you made this one count.

The past three years have taken away my ability to question the Phillies. They have been golden. The foresight to lock down Victorino, Werth, Howard, and Utley while still having the money to go out and get big names was vital in the solidification of the team. While Schneider is more a need-based pickup, I’m just a bit confused as to why they chose to sign Polanco (.285, 10 HR, 72 RBI, 7 SB) rather than the speedy Chone Figgins (.298, 5, 54, 42 SB). There most likely was a price-cut, so paying Polanco 6 mil a year as opposed to last year’s starter Pedro Felix (.266, 12, 82) 5 mil or Figgins 8-9 may be what was best.

The only thing is, despite his abysmal performance in the playoffs, Figgins is the lead off man who may need to replace Jimmy Rollins. After hitting .250 with a sub-.300 on-base last year, Rollins time at the top may need to end. Figgins, whose OBP was 100 points higher than Rollins last year, would have been a premier leadoff man who could have made things happen for the Phils. Polanco, whose OBP was no bum at .331, should definitely move to the leadoff spot if Rollins’ offense continues to deteriorate. Charlie Manuel is loyal though, and he may be reluctant to move Rollins down to the 7 (or spot. I find myself playing the Devil’s Advocate to every Phillies decision (it’s only natural) so I would like to clarify that I support the deal, just as long as the money saved is going towards locking down Cliff Lee.

1. Indianapolis- AFC South Champs
2. Cincinnati- AFC North Champs
3. San Diego- AFC West Champs
4. New England- AFC East Champs
5. Pittsburgh- Wild Card
6. Baltimore- Wild Card

There are a few major question marks here. Is Cinci the real deal? Will Pittsburgh get healthy? Does Baltimore have the weapons to make a push? Will San Diego finally live up to expectations? Will New England’s D hold? Will Indy have an undefeated hangover? It won’t take long to answer these but this is how I see it all playing out.

WILD CARD
San Diego beats Baltimore
Pittsburgh beats New England

DIVISIONAL
Indy beats Pittsburgh (instant classic)
San Diego beats Cincinnati

CONFERENCE
Indianapolis beats San Diego

A combination of home-field advantage, absence of injuries, and Peyton Manning gives the Colts the edge so far in my book. My only hope is they’re still undefeated going in.

I see the NFC playoffs staying as they are heading into the playoffs, giving us:

1. New Orleans- NFC South Champs
2. Minnesota- NFC North Champs
3. Dallas- NFC East Champs
4. Arizona- NFC West Champs
5. Philadelphia- Wild Card
6. Green Bay- Wild Card

I see the bottom four of the NFC far inferior to the bottom four in the AFC, however the top 2 teams in the NFC may very well be the two best in the league. Take a “coulda-gone-either-way” loss to the healthy Steelers early in the year and we could be talking about a 3-way undefeated race with the Fightin’ Favrers included. This is how I see this race playing out:

WILD CARD
Philadelphia beats Arizona (need some sort of revenge)
Green Bay beats Dallas (Romo christens the new Cowboys joint with his signature move)

DIVISIONAL
New Orleans beats Green Bay
Minnesota beats Philadelphia

CONFERENCE
New Orleans beats Minnesota

Home field also does it for the Saints. That, and well, I don’t think anyone can beat them. That’s why Super Bowl XLIV is going to look a little like this:

Saints- 34 Colts- 20

Without their defensive studs all healthy I see some issues Indy may have stopping the Saints offensive storm. It’s Drew Brees to lose, let’s just pay attention to see whether or not he actually does.

Let’s take a look at their remaining schedules:

COLTS

12/6 Tennessee
12/13 Denver
12/17 @ Jacksonville
12/27 NY Jets
1/3 @ Buffalo

When I look at this schedule I see five wins for the Colts, no questions asked. Unfortunately you have to look a little further. Tennessee is hot as fire right now I just don’t see VY coming into Indy and taking this from Peyton. A Thursday game and ensuing ten day break could easily throw the team off, the only thing is the games are against the Jags and Jets, not exactly big time threats. Then comes how soon the Colts clinch home field throughout. No other team in the AFC has less than 3 losses so if they clinch after the Jacksonville game, will the studs continue to play. My guess is they will probably be seeing limited action in the last couple games, but Peyton is going to want this so we’ll see. MY PREDICTION: 15-1 (it’s just too hard to go undefeated, my prediction is the Jets catch em snoozing after the ten day break, IF (BIG IF) Peyton and co. don’t get big minutes.

SAINTS

12/6 @ Washington
12/13 @ Atlanta
12/19 Dallas
12/27 Tampa Bay
1/3 Carolina

Lucky for the Saints, three out of their final five are against division opponents. Atlanta, Tampa, and Carolina all most minimal opposition. Even though Atlanta and Carolina both played the Saints tough in their respective home stadiums early in the year, injuries and massive losses in confidence have both teams finding themselves slipping out of the playoff picture. With Washington being well, Washington, I see Dallas as the only poignant threat. But with the Saturday night lights glaring in the Big Easy with an undefeated season on the line, I have a tough time seeing Romo unseating them. Also, if the Vikings continue to play 1-loss football the Saints will have all the motivation to continue to play hard through Week 17. MY PREDICTION- 16-0 (Whether they can do it in the playoffs, I am less sure of)

I’m ecstatic about the fact that we could get to the end of the regular season, and hopefully the playoffs, with two undefeated teams. Imagine if they are both at 18-0 and meeting in Miami, it’d be the best thing for football in years, maybe ever. Until then, we will wait in anticipation to see whom, if anyone, can bring down the best.

32. Oakland Raiders
31. St. Louis Rams
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
29. Detroit Lions
28. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Buffalo Bills
26. Cleveland Browns
25. Tennessee Titans
24. Miami Dolphins
23. Washington Redskins
22. Carolina Panthers
21. Seattle Seahawks
20. Jacksonville Jaguars
19. Houston Texans
18. Arizona Cardinals
17. Dallas Cowboys
16. Green Bay Packers
15. San Diego Chargers
14. San Francisco 49ers
13. Chicago Bears
12. Atlanta Falcons
11. New York Jets
10. Philadelphia Eagles (can’t argue a loss is a loss, and there are 3 undefeateds in the NFC)
9. Baltimore Ravens
8. New England Patriots
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Denver Broncos
4. New Orleans Saints
3. Minnesota Vikings
2. New York Giants- No self respecting Philadelphia fan ranks them #1 at anything appropriate.
1. Indianapolis Colts- Peyton has done too good of a job with that receiving corps, and that O-Line looks like it did during their Super Bowl season.

It is the beginning of the season so in all reality predictions are meaningless. If anything, they generate excitement. But I do believe the disparity in the national media’s predictions brings one thing to light, the difference between who the Eagles are and who they could be. An off-season “highlighted” (and I quote this because I’m skeptical how much of a highlight it really is) by the acquisition of Michael Vick has covered up the real issues they really have coming into the season.

Losing starting middle linebacker Stuart Bradley was a shot to the ribs, but I believe the team has bigger gaps to fill. My first and foremost concern is the health of the offensive line. Having two starters out on opening day against Carolina proved to be harmless considering the defensive line did more than enough to compensate, but the issue could be worse. They are expected to be without starters Todd Herremans and Shawn Andrews for at least the first few games.
Despite the injuries, I have a hard time finding the Eagles at any worse than 3-1 following week 5.
UPDATE: WEEK 5
As I predicted, the Eagles find themselves at an acceptable 3-1. The team beat three teams it should have one that it could have had not McNabb been out (New Orleans)
We’ll see where we go from here, but in terms of the NFC, I put the Eagles at the top. They beat both Minnesota and New York in the playoffs last year, and until one of those two teams can top them, I say they’re the best. Bold, and possibly a homer move, but their defense is too strong and the offense can strike too fast. No team other than the Giants in the NFL has dismantled opponents like the Eagles have. Inferior opponents, but there is no easy win in the NFL.

American League All-Stars

Starters

C- Joe Mauer, MIN- Only position on this squad where I truly feel like there is no question. Even though he is not yet qualified for the batting crown contention, he will be soon. Leads all AL catchers with at least 200 AB in BA, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, and OPS by substantial if not excessive margins.

1B- Justin Morneau, MIN- Only AL player in top 10 in in average and top 5 in both home runs and RBIs.

2B-  Aaron Hill, TOR- Leads all AL 2B in HR, RBI, BA, and OBP. Most surprising top 5 MVP candidate in either league this year.

3B-  Evan Longoria, TB- So far it’s been Longoria and Detroit’s Brandon Inge far and above all other AL 3B, as they are 1-2 in HR, RBI, SLG, and OPS. While they are both having great years, it is undeniable that Longoria has the edge.

SS- Derek Jeter, NYY- The inevitable starter in the game is still having a great year. He leads all AL SS in hits and is 2nd in HR, R, OBP, BA, SLG, and tied for first with Bartlett in steals among shortstops with at least 200 ABs.

OF- Ichiro, SEA- At this point you can’t leave this guy of any All-Star starting lineup. He leads all big league qualifiers in BA (still trails Mauer) and is still a money outfielder. Most people just don’t know how money he really is (anybody?, eh eh).

OF- Torii Hunter, LAA- Career year so far for the vet. Hasn’t looked to lose too much speed in the OF and is 5th in HR, 3rd in BA, 2nd in RBIs, and 2nd to Zobrist in OPS amongst AL OF.

OF- Ben Zobrist, TB- OPS over 1.000 says it all about the kind of year this guy is having. He’s top 10 in AL OF in HR, RBI, and BA while leading in OBP and SLG (and thus OPS). Dude’s been money and under the radar big time.

Starting Pitcher- Zack Greinke, KC- After an absolutely dominating start followed by a troubling string of four straight losses Greinke seems to have regained form. He’s won his past two starts, giving up 3 ER in 14.1 innings pitched. He is first among all AL pitchers in wins, ERA, WHIP, and CG. Ranks second in strikeouts and third in innings pitched.

Reserves

C- A.J. Pierzynski, CHW and Mike Napoli, LAA- Only two AL catchers qualify for the batting title thus far (Pierzynski and OAK’s Kurt Suzuki) making the crop very thin. Pierzynski and Napoli are the only two AL catchers with at least 180 AB rivaling hitting .300. While their power numbers are soft, the current expectations of MLB catchers is that less is more and durability is key. Sorry to Suzuki, Jorge Posada, Rod Barajas and Miguel Olivo. This is a testament to the dropoff that occurs after Mauer.

1B- Russell Branyan, SEA, Kevin Youkilis, BOS, and Miguel Cabrera, DET- Just like there were four 3rd basemen on the AL team in 2008, there should be four 1B on the team this year. These three guys are posting ridiculous numbers and with every other position only bearing one feasible backup, it just made too much sense to put all three of these guys on the squad. Sorry, Mark Teixeira.

2B- Ian Kinsler, TEX- Despite a BA lower than he would like, Kinsler still ranks in the top two AL 2B in HR and RBIs with Hill (substantially ahead of the crowd) and leads in SLG and OPS. He leads all AL 2B in SB and ranks top 5 in hits, OBP, and runs.

3B- Brandon Inge, DET- As previously noted, Inge and Longoria are far and away the top performing 3B in the AL so far. Granted Scott Rolen has hit at a high mark and A-Rod is posting solid power numbers despite his injury, nobody comes within 3 HRs, 11 RBIs, or 23 slugging points of these two.

SS- Jason Bartlett, TB- While you can’t expect him to top Jeter for the fan’s starting nod, Bartlett is hitting over 50 points higher than the next guy (Jeter) and his OPS is nearly 130 points higher than Jeter’s. Combined with his above .400 OBP and it’s obvious who has been better at the plate thus far, Jeter’s intangibles along with his power production gives him the slight edge.

OF- Carl Crawford, TB, Adam Jones, BAL, and Jason Bay, BOS- All three of these players are having very different years. Bay gets in by leading all AL OF in RBI by a margin of ten, Jones is in the top ten of AL OF in every single major offensive category while being brilliant in center, and Crawford’s .320 clip combined with leading the league in SB and being 2nd in AL OF in runs makes him perhaps the most dangerous #2 hitter in the league.

DH- Mark Teixeira, NYY- Despite the fact that the game will be played in St. Louis with no DH I decided to add one as a wild-card spot for the best offensive player not on the roster so far. In a battle between Tex and Toronto’s Adam Lind, Teixera comes out on top for a few simple reasons. He has more runs, HR, and RBI than Lind while also posting a higher slugging and OPS. While his batting average is nearly thirty points lower, his 44 walks puts their OBPs within five points of eachother, thus greatly decreasing the impact of Lind’s most notable advantage. Right now I say that Teixeira has overall been the more productive player.

Starting Pitchers

Edwin Jackson, DET- Breakthrough year, 2nd in AL in ERA and top 10 in IP and strikeouts.
Roy Halladay, TOR- 10-2 with a sub-3 ERA? Enough said.
Felix Hernandez, SEA- The boy wonder is finally turning into a man. Ranks T-6th among AL pitchers in wins, 5th in IP, 4th in strikouts, and 3rd in ERA.
Kevin Millwood, TEX- After a 5+ ERA and a losing record last year he is having perhaps the most shockingly under the radar year in baseball. He leads all AL pitchers in IP, is T-6th in wins, and ranks 5th in ERA as he rejuvenates his career at the age of 34.
Jered Weaver, LAA- This years Angels pitching rep is 6th in the AL in ERA and tied for 6th in wins. Also ranks in the top 10 in IP and strikeouts.
Justin Verlander, DET- T-6th in wins, 6th in IP, and first in strikeouts by a double digit margin. Sorry to Josh Beckett and especially Mark Buehrle but Verlander’s dominance so far exceeds their consistency.

Relief Pitchers

Joe Nathan, MIN- 21 saves, 1.44 ERA
Jonathan Papelbon, BOS- 20, 1.80
Mariano Rivera, NYY- 20, 2.76
David Aardsma, SEA- 16, 1.49
Bobby Jenks, CHW- 18, 3.21
George Sherill, BAL- 17, 2.51

National League All-Stars

Starters

C- Brian McCann, ATL- Despite not yet being qualified for the batting title McCann leads all C in BA, OPS, SLG, and OPS amongst catchers with at least 200 AB. He is also 2nd in RBIs and 3rd in home runs.

1B- Alber Pujols, St. Louis- Ranks 1st in all major offensive categories in the NL other than batting average (3rd). Unanimously the best offensive player in baseball, if not the best overall.

2B- Chase Utley, PHI- Leads all NL 2B in runs, HR, RBI, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Another position where nobody is really all that close to comparing to his all-around game.

3B- David Wright, NYM- Despite his low power numbers he still leads all NL 3B in hits, double, BA, and OBP. However, a good week by Pablo Sandoval could really swing my vote here.

SS- Hanley Ramirez, FLA- Leads the NL in batting and ranks in the top 10 in the league in runs, OBP, SLG, OPS, and RBI. Leads all NL SS in these categories as well as hits, HR, and SB.

OF- Brad Hawpe, COL- Second of all NL OF in BA, SLG, and OPS. Third in RBI and OBP. Top 5 in those 5 categories gets you a top 3 spot in my book, Justin Upton is very close behind though. Another position where a good week could change my vote.

OF- Raul Ibanez, PHI- Before the groin injury he was staying neck and neck with Pujols in the early goings of the MVP race. Even having not played in two weeks he is still 2nd in the NL in SLG and OPS and 3rd in HR and RBI.

OF- Ryan Braun, MIL- Productivity just sums this guy up. He is in the top 10 in the NL in all major offensive categories other than home runs, where his 16 are good enough for 11th in the league.

Starting Pitcher- Dan Haren, ARI- While his 7-5 record isn’t great, hes posted a league leading 2.19 ERA. The reason I give him the nod over Lincecum here is because of this: In his 5 losses he has given up totals of 1, 2, 1, 3, and 2 earned runs. He has only given up more than 3 ER in one start this year, a game where he gave up 5 in 7 IP and go the no decision.

Reserves

C- Yadier and Benji Molina, STL and SFG, respectively- For the first time the Molina brothers should be on the same All-Star team. Benji leads all catchers in hits, HR, and RBI while Yadier is 2nd in hits, 2nd in BA behind McCann, and 3rd in OPS behind McCann and Geovany Sota among catchers with at least 200 AB. Yadier also remains as the top defensive catcher in the NL.

1B- Prince Fielder, MIL and Ryan Howard- Most people put Adrian Gonzalez or Joey Votto ahead of Howard, but Howard and Fielder’s HR and RBI numbers are only comparable to those of Pujols, putting these two guys on their seperate plateau of superstar.

2B- Orlando Hudson, LAD- While his power numbers are low, his combination of hits, runs, and BA are only comparable to Utley. He’s doin what he’s expected to do to a tee, which is why he is an all-star.

3B- Pablo Sandoval, SFG, Mark Reynolds, ARI, and Ryan Zimmerman, WAS- I try to avoid the hometown bias on Zimmerman, but he leads all NL 3B in runs, is 2nd in hits, and is 3rd in HR, BA, and RBI,  4th in OBP, and 5th in SLG and OPS. Sandoval on the other hand is leading all NL 3B in SLG and OPS, he is 2nd in BA, 3rd in hits and OBP, and 4th in homers (but is tied for the lead in doubles with Wright). No other player is as high all the way across the board as these two guys. Reynolds on the other hand is more fit for the “DH” spot I used for the AL rosters. His 21 HR and 56 RBI are far and away the best amongst NL 3B and his .561 SLG% is only comparable to Sandoval’s .556.

SS- Miguel Tejada, HOU- Tejada is having a great season under the radar. He is a not-as-distant-as-you-would-think 2nd to Ramirez in runs, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. He is actually tied with Ramirez for the position lead in hits and doubles.

OF- Justin Upton, ARI, Carlos Beltran, NYM, and Hunter Pence, HOU- Upton just missed a starting spot with his combination of power (14 HR, 45 RBI, .568 SLG) and his ability to get on base and score (86 hits, 49 runs, .319 BA .394 OBP). Beltran is hurt but still leads all NL OF in BA and OBP. Also, despite low power numbers he is still tied for 3rd in doubles. Pence on the other hand is very close to Matt Kemp for the 6th OF spot. He currently holds narrow leads in average, OBP, SLG, and OPS but trails substantially in RBI and SB. A hot few games by Kemp could turn the tables quickly.

Starting Pitchers

Tim Lincecum, SFG
Matt Cain, SFG
Johnny Cueto, CIN
Josh Johnson, FLA
Chad Billingsley, LAD
These guys rank 2, 3, 4, 7, and 9 in the NL in terms of ERA. All of them have a least 7 wins. A very different yet statistically comparable group unlike the American League.

Relief Pitchers

Heath Bell, SDG- 22 saves, 1.34 ERA
Francisco Rodriguez, NYM- 21, 1.19
Francisco Cordero, CIN- 19, 1.91
Huston Street, COL- 19, 2.91
Jonathan Broxton, LAD- 19, 2.15
Trevor Hoffman, MIL- 18, 1.93
Ryan Franklin, STL- 18, 0.90

Now with the All-Star rosters completed, let’s fast forward 4 monthes, it’s awards time.

American League

Comeback Player of the Year- Russell Branyan, SEA-  Branyan is a 33 year old who has only played in over 100 games twice in his previous nine seasons while playing for seven different teams (with two stints in both San Diego and Milwaukee). His career high in batting is .257 and he’s only topped .240 on that sole occasion. He hit .250 with 12 home runs and 20 RBI last year for Milwaukee. Despite all this, at this juncture he is on pace to finish the 2009 season playing 153 games, hitting 44 homers and knocking in 96 while hitting .294. Is there any question?

Rookie of the Year- (tie) Nolan Reimold, BAL and Ricky Porcello, DET- Reimold leads the race between him and Elvis Andrus (the only 2 everyday rookies in the AL) in BA, HR, RBI, OBP, and OPS while Porcello has stepped in to be the #2 guy the Tigers need to hold onto the Central. A couple more starts by Oakland’s Brett Anderson like his 2-hitter at Fenway and he could be passing both these guys.

Cy Young- Greinke (see above)

MVP- Mauer- Arguably the best defensive catcher in the AL hitting in the high .380s into the All-Star break for a team caught in the fray of the wild card race, unbelievable. If he finishes at .375/35/110 that’s unreal.

National League

Comeback Player of the Year- Zach Duke, PIT- After a rookie 2005 campaign that had everybody believing he was the next big thing, Duke flamed out. After subpar 2006, 2007, and 2008 years in which he compiled an 18-37 record and had ERAs of 4.47, 5.53, and 4.82, Duke has 8 wins and a sub-3.30 ERA for the surprise Pirates.

Rookie of the Year- Colby Rasmus, STL- The Card’s rookie outfielder is having one hell of a campaign so far. An everyday player in center, Rasmus is leading all rookies (with at least 175 ABs) in nearly every offensive category. Unless someone like Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen or Casey McGehee of the Brewers can really boost their everday production, Rasmus has it.

Cy Young- Lincecum- (see above) I have Lincecum right now just barely topping Haren. All it takes is 2-3 starts to change all of that.

MVP- Pujols- The most unquestionable award of them all. This guy could miss the entire month of August come back and still be in the running for the MVP. He’s a hot week away from leading in all three Triple Crown categories. People need to start realizing the blessing we have to watch this guy play in his prime. Awesome.

That’s a-a-a-all folks… put some serious brain power behind this to figure out who right now is the most productive group of players in the game. It should be known that if I were to pick my own 33 man team I might not ignore players such as Manny, A-Rod, or C.C. but as far as today is concerned, these are my players.

1. Blake Griffin, LA Clippers- Almost sad to see a generational talent go to the worst franchise in basketball, possibly sports. He will be an all-star in LA within 3 years but I hope he can get out to enjoy his prime with a playoff team.

2. Hasheem Thabeet, Memphis Grizzlies- I don’t see the Mutumbo comparison. Mutumbo was an absolute beast who put up good offensive numbersfor a couple seasons, a potential I don’t see here. With Thabeet I see a 7 foot 3 guy who has no idea where he is half the time. He cannot be easy to coach as he barely speaks English and has very little basketball instinct. I barely see this guy as a top 8 pick in a good draft, unbelievable that he goes 2 over Rubio. I guess that’s what happens when you’re the Grizzlies and you scare off every single player in Europe by selling off their pride and joy like he’s a spoiled fish.

3. James Harden, Oklahoma City Thunder- I like Harden, but as a 3 pick? Over Rubio? Is Russell Westbrook really that good of a PG to not just move over to SG in favor of the best point guard in the draft? I like a Rubio and Westbrook backcourt a lot more than a Westbrook-Harden tandem. I don’t know, I like the pick but I don’t. Rubio could have made Durant a MVP in 3-4 years.

4. Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings- Once again, over Rubio? A good player but not a true point guard thus not what the Kings need. Is it just me or is it that whenever anyone has talked about the NBA in the past seven years, they never talk about the Kings? They have become the most obsolete team in the league. Let’s take a look at their last 5 first rounds picks: Kevin Martin (26), Francisco Garcia (23), Quincy Douby (19), Spencer Hawes (10), Jason Thompson (12). Is it just me or do the Kings pick worse and worse players withlower picks? If this trend continues, we could be looking at the next Dajuan Wagner in Evans.

5. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves (from Washington)- Time to shoot yourself in the mouth Ernie Grunfeld as Washington’s worst nightmare happens with Rubio falling to 5. The Wizards don’t make this trade and this is their starting lineup for next year: PG- Rubio SG- Arenas SF- Butler PF- Jamison C- Haywood with DeShawn Stephenson as the 6th man. Don’t tell me that team doesn’t compete with Chicago, Miami, andAtlanta for the 4 seed in the East. Now withveteran scorers Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Foye, and Miller having to compete for touches without a natural point, there’s a whole different feel to the Wizards. And it’s not a good feel.

6. Jonny Flynn, Minnesota Timberwolves- The 2nd point guard taken in a row by Minnesota. Wait, what? I like taking the best available in Flynn and I think both Rubio and Flynn have all-star potential, but on the same team? You have to trade one, right? Personally, I take Flynn and see if I can overvalue Rubio to some wannabe contender. Or I take Rubio and hope he’s the next Jason Kidd. Hope being an understatement. I get on my knees and pray.

7. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors- I like Curry here just on best available status alone, but why not milk the Knicks for him? New York made their interest in Curry very public and I don’t see why the Warriors wouldn’t swap picks with them, getting above-value for Curry. You already have Monta Ellis, how many undersized point/shooting guard hybrids do you need? People, Stephen Curry wasn’t even the best point guard for Davidson until his junior year, can we really project he can start there in the NBA? If I’m the Knicks I pull the string and let him run wild with D’Antoni, but they dont and they get…

8. Jordan Hill, New York Knicks- If his guy was so good, how come nobody this side of the desert heard of him until mock drafts started coming out? To me he looks like a freak of nature who dominated inferior athletes in college but won’t be able to match the talent level of the NBA. Hello, Chris Wilcox.

9. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors- Second straight pick I never really heard a lick about until draft projections started coming out. Looks to have good size and skill but from the way they’re talking about him it seems he might be a dunce. Last year’s Pac10 Tournament MOP is quickly cancelled out by the fact that his best friend is Lil’ Romeo. But really, DeMar DeRozan, is this what the 2009 Draft has come to?

10. Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Bucks- There were two projected first round picks in this draft that I thought to myself I would never take as a GM, B.J Mullens from Ohio State and Jennings. The former being because he couldn’t get minutes or prove to be the least bit effective in the Big Ten. The latter because, well, he couldn’t break an 800 on the SAT that he took THREE TIMES. He failed the SATs to the point where had to pack up and play in Europe for a year because he was too stupid to qualify for the NCAA’s ridiculous minimal reqs. To add to this, he didn’t even have a good year in Europe. And because of all this, the Bucks take him higher than projected at 10 as their PG and team leader of the future? Moronic.

Jennings also provided another candidate for the “stupidest thing I will ever see in my life” by showing up on stage four picks after being drafted for his photosoot with the Commish. The dude chose to wait in his hotel room in Manhattan rather than waiting in the green room. If a player isn’t sure if he’s going in the top 20 to the point that he’s scared of being Rashard Lewis or Maciej Lampe, is it a good idea to make him a top 10 pick?

11. Terrence Williams, New Jersey Nets- First pick I like since Curry, a great defender with actual potential to be a contributor on a winning team. Smart, mature, well-spoken, all of which are characteristics that seem to have been thrown out the window as important in this year’s draft. Nice comeback by the Nets after trading their best player for Courtney Lee and Skip-to-my-backup Devin Harris.

12. Gerald Henderson, Charlotte Bocats- MJ finally picks a Blue Devil. Son of a former NBA player. Sounds like it could actually be a decent pick in a couple years. I like Henderson as a good energy player off the bench (Shannon Brown prototype), but do you want that as a lottery pick?

13. Tyler Hansborough, Indiana Pacers- After all the haters for the past four years saying he wasn’t a first round pick,  Hansborough looks brilliant for waiting to come out until the worst draft in the past decade came around so he could slip into the first round. Wait, he’s a lottery pick? Tyler Hansborough is a lottery pick. Just say it, it sounds weird. I like it though, possibly the last big man picked in the first round with contributing potential (James Johnson?).

14. Earl Clark, Phoenix Suns- I actually can say I watched a lot of Louisville games (is it just me or is the Big East always on TV?) and Clark is a good player. Very inconsistent but a good player. But should a player with a rotation player ceiling be picked at 14? This year, sure.

15. Austin Daye, Detroit Pistons- The only guy in the draft I think I could take in the ring. He is 6’11″, 192 pounds. That is ridiculous. He is going to get pounded at the three. Can you imagine the abuse LeBron is going to hand this kid over the course of his career in the East? Never saw anything out of him at Gonzaga.

16. James Johnson, Chicago Bulls- I like the Bulls getting a bruiser to compliment their long, athletic bigs. This pick leaves DeJuan Blair as the only big man left who I think can contribute for a title contender.

17. Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia 76ers- I like this pick a lot more than most people do. Holiday had a very disappointing year at UCLA (and definitely should have stayed for one more year) because he chose to backup a four-year starter in Darren Collison and play in a system unfit for him. Does a couple poor decisions mean he won’t live up to his high school hype? No, he could be OK. In front of Lawson is a risk, but there is a prospective reward.

18. Ty Lawson, Minnesota Timberwolves (immediately traded to Denver)- Kinda sad he got traded so quickly, I was loving Roy Williams’ reaction to the T-Wolves picking their third point guard. As far as the pick, I love it, second to last point guard taken who I think will be an NBA starter (Eric Maynor). Have him sit behind Billups for a few years then run an exciting half court offense, sounds good to me.

19. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks- I guess he’s ok, but ahead of Maynor? No.

20. Eric Maynor, Utah Jazz- Would have been a lottery pick had he not gone to Virginia Commonwealth and people outside of Richmond, VA had seen him in the past two years. He will be the backup until he finds another team. Definitely see him as a starter down the road if he doesn’t rot on the Jazz bench.

21. Darren Collison, New Orleans Hornets- The first time in the draft I thought Blair should have gone. The Hornets are deep, but they aren’t big up front. Between Chandler, West, Julian Wright, and Hilton Armstrong, there isn’t one guy I think twice about boxing out if I’m an NBA power forward. Collison comes in to compete for CP3′s backup job with Antonio Daniels. Isn’t 21 a spot you look for an immediate contributor? DeJuan Blair Misses (DBM): 1

22. Victor Claver, Portland Trail Blazers (from Dallas)- ??? Do the Trail Blazers think if they keep drafting Europeans nobody has ever heard of that other teams won’t see them coming? Unfortunate that all the point guards went before this pick, I would have loved to see Lawson run this offense for 15 minutes a game.

23. Omri Casspi, Sacramento Kings (from Houston)- Love the Israeli getting picked in the first, Jews represent. And if the Sacramento trend continues, we could be looking at a future All-Star!! (Yeah…)

24. B.J. Mullens, Dallas Mavericks (from Portland, traded to OKC)- Funny that this pick got traded two times, because you couldn’t pay me to take this guy. Watching him play last year was painful, but you always heard the first round talk based on size and potential. I understand the value of a true center, but not if he can’t play…

25. Rodrigue Beaubois, Oklahoma City Thunder (from San Antonio, traded to Dallas)- I have no idea who this is, but he was traded for B.J. Mullens so I’m assuming he was not a good pick.

26. Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls (from Denver, via OKC)- Didn’t James Johnson fill the void for a warrior in the paint for Chicago? Gibson is a good player but he is 24 and still has gaping holes in his game. Do you really give a guaranteed contract to him over guys like Blair and Wayne Ellington (who was the sensible pick to fill the void that will be left by Ben Gordon)?

27. DeMarre Carroll, Memphis Grizzlies (from Orlando)- This is a guy who was probably going to go undrafted before being “the guy with the sweet dreads” who helped Missouri get to the Elite 8 this past March. The Renaldo Balkman of this year’s draft. Gotta take Blair here. Now the Grizz PFs (Carroll and Darrell Arthur) average 6’8.5, 216, saying that’s a little light is an understatement. That’s Lindsay Lohan waif for NBA power forwards. DBM: 2

28. Wayne Ellington, Minnesota Timberwolves (from Boston)- The first “steal” of the draft since Rubio. Do people forget how money this guy was for UNC down the stretch? He shot 80% from three in the Final 4. Great pick and a good job overall in the first round by Minnesota if they are able to someday cash in on either Rubio or Flynn.

29. Toney Douglas, Los Angeles Lakers (traded to New York)- The only thing this pick did was further complicate the Rubio to the Knicks prospective deal.

30. Christian Eyenga, Cleveland Cavaliers- Once again, don’t know who he is. If you’re Cleveland didn’t you have major issues defending in the paint last year? Don’t you need a force in the paint to at least slow down the likes of Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard? DeJuan Blair can do that. I know you just got Shaq, but can Christian Eyenga do anything? Probably not. DBM: 3

Is it just me or did every player after Jennings at 10 (a pick I still hate), with the exception of Lawson, Maynor, and Ellington, go at least ten spots higher than they would have in a normal draft class? This draft class is a lot worse than I thought.

Notable 2nd Round Picks:

32. Jermaine Taylor, Washington Wizards (Traded to Houston)- Worst pick of the NBA draft. I know I’ve been whining about how far Blair has slipped for a while, but nobody needed him more than the Not-so-Wiz Kids. Aside from Brenda “Not a Typo” Haywood, the team doesn’t have a guy who weighs more than 250 pounds. When you already have seven shooting guards (sorry, not passing off Gilb or Mike James as point guards) on your roster, does another one in the second round make any sense? I know they eventually traded him, but still the worst miss of the draft. This combined with essentially trading Rubio for Mike Miller and Randy Foye, the Wizards have officially the worst draft in the league. DBM: 4

36. Sam Young, Memphis Grizzlies- How the Grizzlies got a second round talent in Carroll in the first round and a borderline first round talent in Young in the second is a testament to the overall ineptitude of the NBA in this draft.

37. DeJuan Blair, San Antonio Spurs (from Golden State, via Phoenix)- Finally. Can’t believe he fell that far. Did people really forget how he manhandled the 2nd overall pick in Thabeet? He plays a lot bigger than his undersized 6’7″ andif he can develop a mid-range game he’s Glen Davis with balls. Last player in the draft who could start for a champion.

41. Jodie Meeks, Milwaukee Bucks- Rarely would I say I like a team’s 41st overall pick better than the 10th, but I like an accomplished player coming in to backup Michael Redd and be a spark off the bench much more than I like a completely unaccomplished player coming in to run the team. Guy scored 54 points in a game vs. Tennessee this year, that’s ridiculous. Good pick.

44. Chase Budinger, Detroit Pistons (traded to Houston)- Shoulda stuck to volleyball, Chasey boy. Has anyone’s stock dropped as much as his in the past 3 years?

45. Nick Calathes, Minnesota Timberwolves(from Philadelphia via Miami, traded to Dallas)- Top ranked PG in his high school draft class left Florida after two years to go play in Europe. Sad because he’s another good American talent going overseas, as he has signed a 3-year deal to play in Greece. So far the trend hasn’t hit too hard, but how long will it take before it does?

46. Danny Green, Cleveland Cavaliers (from Chicago)- Nice player at UNC, thought he had 1st round talent in spurts. Can do a little bit of everything and I think his verstality will come in handy playing the 2 or 3 for the ten minutes a game that LeBron is on the bench.

48. Taylor Griffin, Phoenix Suns- Looks like Suns are hoping that Taylor has a little more Blake in him than anyone sees. That worked out with Robin Lopez last year right? Oh yea…

55. Patrick Mills, Portland Trailblazers- Guy was a projected first rounder until late season injuries set him back to here. Let’s not forget he had 20 points and no turnovers against the Redeam Team in the Olympics playing for his native Australia.

As I watched the NBA draft last night I was in awe. Not only was the caliber of player almost dangerously below average, the vibe in the theatre was almost joyless. Add in the “new economy” dynamic that was the cause behind some otherwise head-scratchers, and this was the most surreal draft I have ever watched. In what other draft does Austin Daye go ahead of Ty Lawson and Eric Maynor? Does a comparative talent like DeJuan Blair slide to the mid 2nd round? Does one team take four point guards in the first 45 picks? I don’t know the answers to any of those questions, but I do know I never want to see a draft like this again.

Here’s how the night went in my world:

6:30- On our way to the game torrential thunderstorms begin to reign down upon the entire Potomac/Anacostia region as Mother Nature seemingly makes Nationals Park the center of her attack.
7:30- After a delay and continued storms, the rain slows and eventually stops. We leave the car and make our way towards the stadium.
7:45- More people are in the stands than for a usual game giving me hope that DC does care about baseball. It seems much of the city is recognizing the historic accomplishment, despite the delay and imminent rain.
8:00- My father and I make our way into the park and take our seats. The tarp is off the infield and the grounds crew is drying off.
8:14- After fourteen painful minutes of watching a mostly clueless grounds crew squigee water on to mini tarps in right field the crowd is informed of an impending storm and to take cover.
8:15- The only part of this that I enjoyed was watching every middle-aged woman in the stadium running for cover like there was a bomb threat at the somber announcement to “please evacuate the stands to the covered area as there is a serious thunderstorm approaching the stadium.” Now I know why the Real Housewives series chose DC to be it’s next locale.

8:45- It’s raining so f*****g hard.

8:50- Underneath cover in the right field stands it’s raining to the point where I can barely see the 3rd base line concourse. I’ve never seen it rain this hard at a baseball game.
9:00- My father and I decide to leave as puddles are turning the outfield completely unplayable, but it’s literally raining too hard to walk to the car. So we wait.
9:30- With no cancellation despite the field obviously being unplayable the rain slows down to the point we can at least walk in it without being blown over, but not before some moron runs on the field and is laid out on the tarp by security.

9:45- Virginia Route 100 by the Memorial Bridge is submerged in 20 inches of water, but the Nationals delay continues at 2 hours, 40 minutes in hopes of the biggest non-Redskins sports moment to maybe ever happen in DC (sorry Caps fans but your conferene finals series win over Buffalo wasn’t that big of a deal, DC fans were so starved for a winning team they turned an good, yet vastly overachieving team in a weak conference, into the second coming of the ’84 Oilers, also a story for another day).
10:10- I’m home alive after suffering six to seven mild anxiety attacks during the ride.
10:20 Despite pleas from the Baseball Tonight guys, the Nationals delay carries on as DC area interstates continue to flood, sorry Karl Ravech.
10:43- The MLB network announces the cancellation of the game after 3 hours and 38 minutes of delay. Yes, an almost 4 hour rain delay. Judging by the cancellation time, these guys would have been willing to start the game at 11 PM ET, too late for anyone with a job or a television to even see Johnson record the win.

Now let me take a moment to explain why I have such a major issue with the Nats latest stunt. For an organization that is unable to field a competitive team and is even worse at marketing it, you would think it might go the extra mile to cater to the fans. You know, maybe not putting them through a compeltely unneccesary two extra hours of waiting (any baseball fan knew that at 9 PM, there was no way the field was going to be playable). Considering the occassion there will probably not be more fans sitting through a rain delay in the next 5 years of Nationals baseball, presenting a small opportunity for the organization to prove some legitimacy as a Major League club, and they blew it.

Despite the fact that not a single available ballpark employee had a clue on what was procedure for a rain delay, I still believed this was too simple for the Nationals to screw up. But oh, I was wrong.

Which educated meteorologist abided to the tarp being taken off with a tropical depression coming over the horizon? Don’t they know that to anybody who knows anything about the game that no tarp means the game is about to start? Either these guys are morons or they knew the game couldn’t possibly start before 10 PM and needed a way to keep the fans in the stands.

They knew what the deal was I’m sure, because despite the fact that everything they do is idiotic I’m sure they can read a radar screen. The Nationals did everything they could to keep people in the stands, and acommplished what they wanted it to. They cleared out concessions and probably doubled their merchandise sales for the quarter during the delay. But is that a sacrifice you are willing to make for the trust of your fans?

So why did the Nationals inevitably destine every man, woman, and child to an exhausting Thursday as a reward for sticking with them all night? The answer doesn’t even lie on this side of the Mississippi.

The Nationals showed their lack of pride as an organization by being easily coerced by the San Francisco Giants to let the game go on. Randy Johnson made it clear to team officials that he wanted to pitch that night, not the next day, not in two days, because he realized he was never going to have an easier shot at the win than in a rain-soaked game against arguably the worst MLB team of the last 40 years (A feat he was still able to achieve the next day). He decided when this game was going to be called, not Nationals officials. You think that happens in Philadelphia? New York? Hellll no. I don’t know any successful organization that would put the safety of it’s players in jeopardy by making them play on unplayable grounds.

This combined the fact that 11 PM is 8 PM in San Francisco, the Giants had no reason to care for the inconvenience everyone in the Metropolitan area had to endure for a chance to see history. By the time the game was called I guarentee you a couple diehard fans remained in the stands, trusting that the organzation couldn’t, wouldn’t, keep there this long if there was no chance of playing. The estimated start time went from 8:30, to 9:30, to 10:15 as the night went on, giving fans confidence that the team was on top of things when in reality, it was just praying for a miracle at the fans expense.

So congratulations to the Nationals, as if having jerseys with the wrong name on them or skimming foreign prospects of their signing bonuses wasn’t bad enough. While your fans still come out no matter how terrible of a team you seemingly unapologetically throw out onto the field every night, you have slighted them once again. This time it was letting them unwillingly waste their time and money.

From 1960-2000 eight pitchers reached the 300 win column and eleven hit their 500th home runs. Since 2000, three players have joined the now 23 man 300 win club, while nine out of the 25 members of the 500 home run club have reached it in that same time period. This now makes the 300 win milestone a more exclusive, and less controversial,  accomplishment. While this denotes that there has been a negative correlation between the power surge of the 1990s-2000s and wins by starting pitchers, the way the game has changed has just as much, if not more, to do with it.

In the 18 year period from 1968-1986 the Major League leader regularly pitched over 320 innings while winning more than 24 games in 12 out of the 16 years (never winning less than 20). This was a period in which six pitchers (Carlton, Niekro, Perry, Seaver, Sutton, and Ryan) were building their resumes as club members. However, since Bob Welchwon 27 games for Oakland in 1990 only two pitchers have won 24 games in a season (John Smoltz in 1996 and Johnson in 2002) and no pitcher has thrown more than 272 innings in a year.

But perhaps the most basic statistic to look at when diagnosing how many games an individual is able to win is the number of opportunities he is given to win, otherwise known as games started. For pitchers whose careers started after 1984, only five have started over 550 games andthree of them (soon to be four with Johnson) have won 300. In comparison, for pitchers whose careers began post-1960 and ended pre-1995, twelve eclipsed 550, six of them winning 300.

In this era of baseball pitchers are simply not getting the chances to get 300 wins. With the level of performance at all positions constantly reaching historic levels in the past ten years, the stress placed on players, particularly pitchers, is far too immense to assume long, healthy careers for anyone.

Now here comes the million dollar question, do I believe that Randy Johnson will be the last pitcher in Major League Baseball history to win 300 games? No. Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, andnow Johnson all won 300 during the steroid era with Clemens, Maddux and perhaps Glavine (682) starting over 700 games, proving to me that even in the hardest of times there will be those great pitchers that can get it done.

I do believe however that there is a good chance that Johnson is going to be the last active player to win 300 games. To gauge this, please note what the following pitchers would have to accomplish by the age of 43 to reach 300 wins:

Roy Oswalt: 31 years old, 129 wins entering 2009 (only 2 so far this season): 14.2 wins/year for the next 12 seasons. While he has averaged over 16 wins a year in his 8 year career and has mostly avoided injury, he has pitched a lot of innings and plays for a now-average ballclub(not for long I’m sure). Pitching at such a high level to the age of 43 is a lot to expect of a breaking ball pitcher. Where he ends up next season will have something to do with his final total, but I don’t think Oswalt is the generational type pitcher that can accomplish such a feat.

Roy Halladay: 32 years old, 131 wins entering 2009 (already 9 this season): 15.36 wins/year for the next 11 seasons. Halladay got a late start to his career but has averaged 17.3 wins/year in his past three seasons and looks to be on pace for at least 20 more wins this year. However, he like Oswalt has pitched a lot more innings in his career than most of his counterparts (with some injury). While I think he has a better shot than Oswalt I still think he started winning games too late in his career and will bow out in the mid-200s.

Mark Buehrle: 30 years old, 122 wins entering 2009 (6 so far this season): 13.7 wins/year for the next 13 years.  Buehrle has been fairly consistent and resilient in his career (aside from his subpar 2006 campaign). He has averaged 13.8 wins/year since winning 16 and 19 respectively in his first two full seasons and hasn’t had 16 wins since 2005. For him to come close to averaging 14 wins over the next decade plus he would need to start putting together some 17-18 win seasons now. While this year is looking bright for him so far, I don’t see him putting together 85 wins in the next 5 seasons, the type of streak he would need to contend.  Another one bites the dust.
 
In my opinion there is but one active player who can possibly achieve this milestone,

C.C. Sabathia: 28 years old, 117 wins entering 2009 (5 so far this season): 12.2 wins/year for the next 15 seasons (15.25/year for the next 12 years for comparison).
Here are the following reasons I think C.C. can do it:
1) He’s durable- He’s pitched at least 180 innings in all eight of his seasons, never started less than 28 games, and stayed out of all major injury trouble.

2) He started young- He won 30 games by his 22nd birthday and has not had a “bad” season since. He could feasibly have 140-145 wins by his 30th birthday.

3) He’s a command pitcher- Like all the pitchers in this generation who have reached 300 wins, C.C. rules the strike zone. If he is able to compensate command for power as he ages (i.e. Randy Johnson) he will be able to stay at a high level of play for at least another decade.

4) He’s coming around- After a very good, not great, start to a young career he has put his two best seasons together in 2007 and 2008. He won the Cy Young in 07 and last season was in my opinion undoubtedly the Most Important Player in the National League and would have won the MVP and Cy Young had he pitched there the entire year.

5) The Yankees- He’s signed on to a Yankees team for the next 7 years where he should be getting the run support needed to win games in bunches. While in Cleveland the team was mediocre at best for the majority of the time he spent there (aside from his last two full seasons there) and he single-handedly carried an above-average Milwaukee team to the playoffs last year. And while all great pitchers have not succeeded in New York (i.e. Randy Johnson again), if he is able to average 18 wins/year there I think he does it.

These are are the reasons I don’t think he can do it:
1) He has battled being “above-average”- While C.C. has had a great career so far, 300 game winners cannot repeatedly put up simply above-average numbers. In four of his eight seasons he has won 13 or fewer games and in half of his seasons has he had an ERA above 4.

2) He’s not winning enough games- While this sort of plays off #1, even in good years C.C. hasn’t put up wins. He has never won 20 games and has only won over 15 in three seasons. He went 13-9 in 2003 while posting a 3.60 ERA and 12-11 with a 3.22 ERA in 2006. So, in two out of his four best seasons ERA-wise he has averaged only 12.5 wins.

In comparison in their three best full years (ERA-wise) since their rookie years, Oswalt has averaged 18 wins (and this is excluding 20 and 17 win seasons), Buehrle 17 wins, and Halladay 18.3 wins (excluding 22 and 16 win seasons). While Sabathia has averaged 16 wins in his best three, two of them have been the last two seasons.

3) Started too young- Clearly there is a bit of a catch-22 here, but starting his career with a full season in which he turned 21 in July is an early beginning for a pitcher. It is his early start that has enabled to be in the conversation despite not being a dominant pitcher in the wins column up to this point. While he only pitched over 200 innings once in his first 6 years, it will take a toll in the longrun on a player who throws as hard as he does. For comparison this is how many innings the players who have reached (or are about to reach) 300 recently fared through the seasons in which they had their 28th birthday (or their final season before their 28th birthday).

Randy Johnson- 606.6 innings
Roger Clemens- 1511.6
Greg Maddux- 1708 (led the league 3 times and pitched over 200 innings 6 times, but keep in mind the difference in pitching styles)
Tom Glavine- 1355.6
C.C. Sabathia- 1659.1

It is clear that one needs to pitch a lot from a young age to be able to contend for the milestone (Randy Johnson and Phil Niekro being a couple anomalies). So far the main difference between these guys and Sabathia is their ability to continuously put up 18-20+ win seasons. Johnson and Clemens are the two power pitchers on this list, and while it is easily explained why Johnson was able to pitch effectively deep into his career (limited innings, great teams, had to have better command to compensate for loss of power), perhaps only Brian McNamee can explain why Clemens pitched at the exact same level from the ages of 23 to 44.

So as I sit in the stands tonight and watch Randy, the old, tamed version of the late ’90s monster that gave me nightmares throughout elementary school, I will wonder if I am witnessing perhaps the last great milestone of my generation. Johnson will be remembered as a player who carried on through a tainted era in baseball to be perhaps the final player in any of our lifetimes to reach a landmark of this level of significance. Little did he know as a mullet-headed, raw, undisciplined 26 year old rookie with the Montreal Expos know that 20 years later he would transcend all expectations to be the player left to represent the last of a dying breed in baseball, joining 23 other all-time greats as perhaps the final member of the 300 win club. That is, unless a man named C.C. has something to say about it.